NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Last weekend, I went 4 for 6 on my Super Wild Card predictions. Not bad, but I am not satisfied with anything less than perfect. After digging deeper into the matchups this week, I have a much clearer picture of how the Divisional Round is going to go. Let’s go 4 for 4.

AFC Divisional Predictions

Bills @ Broncos

(image via @FDSportsbook on X)

As I predicted, Josh Allen put on the Superman cape last weekend, leading his team to a gritty win in Jacksonville. Allen injured his hand, twisted his knee, and was even examined for a possible concussion, yet still managed to get the job done. Allen is not the only Bill banged up right now. Starting safety Jordan Poyer likely will not play this Sunday due to a hamstring injury, and both Gabe Davis and promising rookie Tyrell Shavers tore their ACLs in Jacksonville. Meanwhile, the Broncos got another week of rest, with Drew Sanders being the only starter on the injury report.

In terms of the matchup, this is yet again a difficult one for the Bills, who rely heavily on the run game. The Broncos rank just below the Jaguars in run defense, sitting second in the NFL. Meaning once again, this game is going to fall on the shoulders of Josh Allen. And if anyone is prepared for that, it is this lethal Broncos defense.

On the positive side for the Bills, their pass defense has been elite this year, and Denver ranks 11th in pass plays called per game, meaning Bo Nix has his work cut out for him. Just like last week, when looking at these two quarterbacks, I am taking Josh Allen 10 times out of 10, so I am going to ride with Superman until the wheels fall off. Bills 31, Broncos 27

Texans @ Patriots

(image via @sadpatsfan on X)

Drake Maye’s first playoff game was not pretty, but he came through in the end. He went 17 for 29 passing for 268 yards and a late touchdown pass to Hunter Henry. He struggled early against a physical Chargers defense, but the story of the game was the Pats’ defensive line, who gave Justin Herbert hell, sacking him six times. Similarly, the Texans' defense gave Aaron Rodgers fits on Monday night, getting to him three times and scoring twice.

The difference in the Texans game was that instead of doing enough to win like Drake Maye, CJ Stroud did just about everything to make his team lose. Stroud fumbled five times in the game, losing two of them, and threw an interception on top of that. Despite this poor performance, the Houston defense showed up big time, allowing the Texans to win the game handily.

This one is tough. I love this Texans defense, but it is also hard for me to see Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel lose a playoff game at home. Although I do not like to base my predictions on the spread, the line, as I am typing this, is Patriots -3. I think if Vegas really believed in New England, this would be closer to 4.5points. Therefore, give me Houston in a really close defensive battle. Texans 23, Patriots 20

NFC Divisional Predictions

49ers @ Seahawks

(image via @mikedugar on X)

We’ve seen this Seattle–San Fran matchup twice already this season, with the series tied at one apiece. Most recently, we watched the Seattle defense manhandle Kyle Shanahan’s offense in San Francisco in Week 18. All things considered, I thought the 49ers defense did a phenomenal job stopping Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in that game, but their offense couldn’t get anything going all game long.

Now two weeks later, Seattle is coming off a week of rest and is at home. Meanwhile, the Niners won in Philly but sustained even more injuries, most notably losing George Kittle for the season to an Achilles tear.

This one seems like it’s going to be all Seahawks, and while I think they’ll end up victorious, I still have a hard time trusting Sam Darnold in big moments. Similar to Week 18, I think it’s more so the Seahawks’ skill position players and defense that make the game-defining plays.

What scares me is the fact that when Shanahan has made the playoffs with the 49ers, they’ve at least made it to the NFC Championship, and in the playoffs, except with the Falcons, he’s been clutch. I trust him to make the proper adjustments and scheme some easy throws for Purdy, and of course, get CMC going early and often. But in the end, I think the talent of Seattle and the lack thereof by San Fran due to injury is too much to overcome. Seahawks 28, 49ers 25

Rams @ Bears

(image via @ramstapes on X)

I couldn’t be more excited for this game, as it has all the makings of an absolute shootout. These teams are so evenly matched and similar, not only on offense but on defense as well. We know these are two of the most highly touted offenses in football, but both defenses, while having pieces, have not lived up to expectations. And to make things even more interesting, it is going to be the coldest game in Chicago all year long.

To add to the similarities, both teams had scares last week, with each pulling victories from the jaws of defeat. For the Rams, down four late in the fourth, Stafford and Co. went down the field in a classic two-minute drill situation and finished off the Panthers with a Colby Parkinson TD. As for the Bears, they were down 21-6 in the third, and thanks to some truly miraculous plays by Caleb Williams down the stretch, the Bears took home the W.

I want to say the cold gives the advantage to the Bears, but Stafford has dealt with harsh conditions countless times in his career, and I trust him to handle it again. This one is going to be tight, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes down to whoever has the ball last. In the end, I’m leaning with the Rams to sneak out a win in a classic. Rams 34, Bears 31